如何在 2021 年战胜通货膨胀抗通胀？以下是保护您的投资组合免受高通胀影响的方法。
通货膨胀对股票和债券的影响仍然是许多投资者关注的问题，尤其是那些计划很快退休并需要从投资组合中获得收入的投资者。消费者支出和工资是通胀的两个关键驱动因素，自全球大流行开始以来，两者均已反弹。随着整体经济的改善，企业收益也有所增长，而美联储进行了大量债券购买。
由于供应链瓶颈和冠状病毒病例数量的增加影响了汽车等消费品，包括食品和能源价格在内的总体通货膨胀率上升。在截至 8 月的 12 个月中，消费者物价指数显示物价上涨 5.3%。不包括波动的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率同比增长 4%。相比之下，美联储的长期通胀基准为 2%。2021 年通货膨胀率升高，您需要了解以下三方面信息抗通胀：
1.通货膨胀如何影响您的投资组合。
与债券相比，通货膨胀对股票回报的直接影响通常较小，因为它会降低现金流的购买力。TradeBlock CoinDesk Indexes 董事总经理 Jodie Gunzberg 表示抗通胀：“股票通常在通货膨胀的情况下表现更好，特别是如果通货膨胀伴随着增长。”
总部位于纽约的咨询公司毕马威 (KPMG) 的首席经济学家康斯坦斯·亨特 (Constance Hunter) 表示，由于消费者支出增加以及企业在经济重建时进行的投资增加，美国近几个季度的 GDP 增长强劲。“现在我们的 GDP 强劲反弹，推动这种反弹是两件重要的事情，”她说。 “一是商品消费强劲反弹——2021年上半年商品消费变化大于2018年和2019年变化总和。二是投资增加，尤其是科技投资在未来几年保持生产力的提高。”
与此同时，与股票相比，债券价格和回报受通胀的影响更大，尤其是如果通胀持续存在的话。迈克尔·安德希尔说：“如果通胀高于预期，债券价格将被严重错误定价，美联储将被视为严重落后于曲线，债券义务警员将返回，”这反过来会压低债券价格并推高利率，威斯康星州皮沃基 Capital Innovations 的首席投资官。安德希尔对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 以住房和劳动力成本急剧上升为由，称近期的通胀是暂时的表示怀疑。
Beacon Group 的管理合伙人、宾夕法尼亚州普鲁士国王的财务顾问布赖恩·梅尼克拉 (Brian Menickella) 表示，如果通胀继续居高不下，美联储将需要收紧货币政策并提高利率，以阻止企业和消费者的额外借贷。公司。他说，随着商品成本的增加和美元的消费能力下降，这一举措将推动美元贬值。
“这降低了债券股息未来现金流的购买力，”梅尼克拉说。 “这最终将提高收益率，从而反过来降低债券价格。随着时间的推移，价格上涨会降低债券支付的每笔利息的购买力。当投资者担心债券的收益率跟不上通胀成本上升时，债券价格下跌是因为投资者对它的需求减少了。”
但冈茨伯格说，通胀对资产的确切影响仍然难以估计。“显然，目前的连续上涨远不及 1980 年代初结束的长期高通胀，”她说。 “鉴于我们对近期高通胀的观察有限，很难估计通胀对资产的影响会持续多久。”
2.在通胀时期表现良好的行业。
安德希尔说，更高的通胀将被证明是“对成长型股票等长期股票的坏消息，而对实物资产、能源、材料和房地产等通胀对冲股票更有利”。 “与债券相比，在通胀温和上升的背景下，股票总体上表现更好。”房地产历来在通货膨胀时期表现良好。亨特说，例如，与大流行前的水平相比，2021 年的房价上涨了 20%。
“然而，由于通货膨胀与滞后指标同时存在，当前的价格并不能告诉你未来必须投资什么，”她说。 “一般来说，当公司能够亨特说，归结为生产力。“投资于人工智能和机器学习等数字技术的公司最有可能投资于未来产生公司水平生产力的能力，”她说。
3.您需要重新平衡您的投资组合吗？
亨特说，至少在几十年内不打算退休的人不需要重新分配他们当前的资产。“如果您距离退休还有 20 到 30 年，并且您认为在那之前您不需要这笔钱，请不要担心投资组合分配方面的通货膨胀，”她说。 “与债券相比，对股票进行更大的配置是谨慎的。”
一些投资者，尤其是那些接近退休的投资者，更愿意将资金分配给对冲通胀的投资。其中一项投资是二次利率波动率和通胀对冲交易所交易基金（股票代码：IVOL），该基金积极管理并提供国债通胀保护证券（称为 TIPS）的敞口，并使用期权来对冲收益率的变化纽约 CFRA Research 交易所交易基金和共同基金研究主管托德·罗森布鲁斯 (Todd Rosenbluth) 表示。 IVOL 与股票、债券、黄金、高收益信贷和波动率指数 VIX 的相关性较低。它于 2019 年 5 月推出，费用率为 1.05%，一年回报率为 5.42%。
Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF (INFL) 于 2021 年 1 月推出，受到积极管理并拥有轻资产公司的股票，这些公司可以在通胀上升时受益。它拥有 Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM)、Charles River Laboratories International Inc. (CRL) 和 Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE)。该基金的费用率为 0.85%，年初至今的回报率为 17%。
#美国见闻##财经##我要上 头条##美股##中美贸易摩擦#
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How to Beat Inflation in 2021
Here's how to protect your portfolio from elevated inflation.The impact of inflation on stocks and bonds remains a concern for many investors, especially those who are planning to retire soon and will need the income from their portfolios.
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Consumer spending and wages are two key drivers of inflation, and both have rebounded since the start of the global pandemic. Corporate earnings have also grown as the overall economy improves, while the Federal Reserve has conducted a large amount of bond buying.
Headline inflation, which includes the prices of food and energy, rose as supply chain bottlenecks and the rising number of coronavirus cases affected consumer products such as cars. For the 12 months ended in August, the consumer price index showed prices increasing 5.3%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 4% on a year-over-year basis. For comparison, the Fed's long-term inflation benchmark is 2%. Here's what you need to know about elevated inflation in 2021:
How inflation influences your portfolio.
Sectors that perform well during inflationary periods.
Do you need to rebalance your portfolio?
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How Inflation Influences Your Portfolio
Inflation typically has a less direct effects the returns of stocks than on bonds, since it diminishes the purchasing power of the cash flow.
"Stocks generally hold up better with inflation, especially if the inflation comes with growth," says Jodie Gunzberg, managing director of CoinDesk Indexes at TradeBlock.
The U.S. has showed strong GDP growth in recent quarters, due to higher consumer spending and investments made by companies as the economy rebuilds, said Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, a New York-based consulting company.
"Right now we have GDP rebounding strongly, and driving that rebound is two important things," she says. "The first is a strong rebound in goods consumption – the change in goods consumption in the first half of 2021 was more than the change in 2018 and 2019 combined. The second thing is an increase in investment, particularly investment in technology that is likely to keep productivity elevated for years to come."
Meanwhile, bond prices and returns are more heavily affected by inflation than stocks, especially if that inflation is here to stay.
"Bond prices would be materially mispriced if inflation is running higher than expectations, and the Fed would be viewed as seriously behind the curve and the bond vigilantes would return," which in turn would depress bond prices and push up interest rates, says Michael Underhill, chief investment officer of Capital Innovations in Pewaukee, Wisconsin. Underhill expressed doubts about Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's pronouncements that recent acute inflation is transitory, citing sharp rises in housing and labor costs.
If inflation continues to run high, it will require the Fed to tighten monetary policies and increase interest rates to discourage additional borrowing from companies and consumers, says Brian Menickella, managing partner at the Beacon Group, a King of Prussia, Pennsylvania-based financial advisory company. This move will drive the value of the dollar down as the cost of goods will increase and the spending power of the dollar declines, he says.
"This reduces the buying power of bond dividend future cash flow," Menickella says. "This will ultimately raise yields, which inversely drops the price of the bond. Rising prices over time reduces the purchasing power of each interest payment a bond makes. When investors worry that a bond's yield won't keep up with the rising costs of inflation, the price of the bond drops because there is less investor demand for it."
But the exact impact that inflation has on assets remains difficult to estimate, Gunzberg says.
"Clearly the current streak is nowhere near the extended periods of high inflation ending in the early 1980s," she says. "Given that we have limited observations of high inflation in recent times, it is difficult to estimate how long the inflationary impact on assets will last."
[ SEE: 9 High Dividend Yield Stocks for 2021. ]
Sectors That Perform Well During Inflationary Periods
Higher inflation would prove to be "bad news for longer-duration equities such as growth stocks and more favorable to inflation hedge equities such as real assets, energy, materials and real estate," Underhill says. "Equities in general perform better in a moderate increasing-inflation backdrop versus bonds."
Real estate has historically performed well during inflationary periods. For example, housing prices are up by 20% in 2021 compared with pre-pandemic levels, Hunter says.
"However, since inflation is a concurrent to lagging indicator, current prices do not tell you what to invest in going forward necessarily," she says. "Generally speaking, when companies are able tcomes down to productivity, Hunter says.
"Firms that are investing in digital technology such as artificial intelligence and machine learning are the most likely to be investing in their future ability to generate firm level productivity," she says.
Do You Need to Rebalance Your Portfolio?
People who do not plan on retiring for at least a couple of decades do not need to reallocate their current assets, Hunter says.
"Don't worry about inflation with regard to portfolio allocation if you are 20 to 30 years away from retirement and you do not think you will need the money before then," she says. "It is prudent to have a greater allocation to equities than bonds."
Some investors, especially those closer to retirement, prefer to allocate money to investments that hedge against inflation.
One such investment is the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge exchange-traded fund (ticker: IVOL), which is actively managed and provides exposure to Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS, and uses options to hedge against shifts in the yield curve, says Todd Rosenbluth, head of exchange-traded fund and mutual fund research at New York-based CFRA Research. IVOL has a low correlation to stocks, bonds, gold, high-yield credit and the VIX, a volatility index. It was launched in May 2019 and has an expense ratio of 1.05% and a one-year return of 5.42%.
The Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF (INFL), which launched in January 2021, is actively managed and owns stocks of asset-light companies that can benefit amid higher inflation. It owns Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM), Charles River Laboratories International Inc. (CRL) and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE). The fund has an expense ratio of 0.85% and a year-to-date return of 17%.